September 24: PHILLIES 3, New York 2 (Magic Number is 2)
Record since the "Houston Massacre": 23-4
Record in September: 19-3
On Wednesday, I wheeled the virtual champagne from the virtual wine cellar into the virtual chiller. Tonight, I moved the virtual champagne from the virtual chiller to the virtual ice.
Yes, Phillies fans, your long, long wait for the 2010 Eastern Division Championship is almost over. How many of us, myself included, saw this coming after the Phils turned a 24-13 start into a 49-46 record in July with a horrendous 25-33 run in which the team simply couldn't hit to save its life? How many of us ... let's be honest ... gave up on the club's chances at the division, and started computing scenarios in which we could still get the Wild Card? I know I did.
But I the one thing I refused to do is completely give up hope that the guys could at least get into the playoffs. I love the Phils too much to give up on 'em completely, not in July. I never thought they'd do what they've done, but I wasn't bailing on them until it was clear that they couldn't catch anyone.
Think about how this team could have stacked up with some of the great all-time teams if they had played like champions in that 58-game funk. Let's take a look at it. The Phils are now an MLB-best 93-61. Subtracting out that 25-33 stretch, and the Phils are 68-28 in games prior to and after that 58-game aberration. Here is what the Phils' record could have looked like (as of tonight) if:
The Phils had played those 58 games at their post-49-and-46 pace (.745) clip: 111-43
The Phils had played those 58 games at their pre-49-and-46 pace (.648): 105-49
The Phils had played those 58 games at their current pace (.604): 103-51
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .556 (90-win) pace: 100-54
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .500 pace: 97-57
Obviously, this is pure fantasy, as no one really knows what would have happened if the Phils had played much, much better over those 58 games than they actually did. For openers, would they still have coveted Roy Oswalt with such a great record? Would they have needed him?
The list above is interesting when you consider how we saw this club coming out of Spring Training. We all thought this team, with Halladay, was even better than last year's team, and had the word "powerhouse dynasty" written all over it. Did we think 100 wins were possible? No, I don't think so ... I saw very few article or blog postings talking about 100 wins (Comments to posts? Yes, but few bloggers themselves were predicting a cool century). But if you look at what the Phils were capable of, even playing those 58 games at a 90-win pace (100-54 with eight games to play), you get the sense that the injuries and long hitting slump may have robbed us of a place in the pantheon of great single-season teams.
As it is, the current September is the stuff of legend. As much as September of 2007 was epic, this has been a September that could rank as one of the greatest closing kicks ever by a pennant contender. It's almost New York Giant-like in magnitude.
The Giants were 20-5 in September of 1951 to make up seven games after a 20-9 August ... the Phils are presently 19-3 making up three games after an 18-10 August. That's a 40-14 finish for the Giants versus a current skein of 37-13. Bet you haven't seen anyone compare the 2010 Phils to the 1951 Giants, have you?
So, let's enjoy this ride while it lasts, and keep reminding ourselves that we're watching something absolutely historical as the Phils continue to ride roughshod on the NL. Like you, I hope the bottom doesn't fall out ... but somehow, I think the way this club responded to all the injuries (remember what happened to the Mets when they lost Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, and Putz last year) has them believing that they are the best team on the planet.
And I agree ... the Phils are the best team in all of baseball right now. And just like I won't argue the merits of some Whiz wit on my steak ... I won't argue my previous point.
Showing posts with label Stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stats. Show all posts
Friday, September 24, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Swee-eee-eee, Sweep City Woman
September 19: PHILLIES 7, Washington 6
JAYSON WERTH ... YOU ARE THE MAN!
WOW!!! What a comeback! Unbelievable! Scintillating! There are no words! I can't believe what I just saw! The Phillies win ... theeeeeeeeeeeeee Phillies win! And that's a Phils winner! You can put it on the boarrrrrrrd ... YES! Long drive to deep. Left. Center field. And that ball is ... OUTTA HEEEERRRRRREEEEE ... Jay-son Werth, with a two-run, home-run, and the Phils win it, 7-6!! Hard to believe, Harry!
You name the game-ending hyperbole, and it applied to today's game. As I watched football this afternoon, I kept my eye on the score updates that FOX kept cycling along with the football scores. And as a Phillies 3-1 lead turned into a 6-3 deficit in the upper-right corner of my TV screen, my anger boiled like a hotdog in those old steamer trays that Charlie Frank used to tote around the Vet in the old days.
As an aside, I miss Charlie. When he'd be out of dogs and someone would flag him down, he'd holler back, "Gotta take my doggy for a walk ... be right back". And that man knew how to slather the Gulden's onto every Phillie Frank :)
Anyway, imagine my surprise when, between football games, I copped my wife's Blackberry to check on the score of the Phils' game. 7-6! What happened?!?!? How? Who? A quick flip over to MLB Network to catch Quick Pitch ... and my questions were answered.
Joe Blanton continues, unfortunately, to refuse to last into and beyond the 6th inning so that the bullpen can get some needed rest down the stretch. I am amazed at Blanton: with the work that Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels have been doing, he simply doesn't get it. Cruising along with eight Ks through five innings, he doesn't take a page from their book and stay focused ... he gets lazy and then gets in trouble ... then gets his pitch count up above 90, which is where the real fun starts.
Of course, the big series starts on Monday, with Jair Jurrjens opposing Cole Hamels. The Braves series will be a playoff preview in the sense that we'll get a chance to see what Games 1-3 of the NLDS will look like on the mound. The rest of the National League will most definitely be watching, since either the Reds, Rockies, Giants, or Padres will be facing those three guys come October 6.
With the three-game lead, the Phils can take two and almost wrap up the division. Taking 2 of 3 would put the Phils at 91-62, the Braves at 87-66 ... leaving the Phils four up with nine to play. Here's what would be needed, then, the final nine games:
Should the Phils lose 2 of 3, then they'd be 90-63, and the Braves would be 88-65, leaving us with:
September 18: PHILLIES 5, Washington 2
September 17: PHILLIES 9, Washington 1
JAYSON WERTH ... YOU ARE THE MAN!
WOW!!! What a comeback! Unbelievable! Scintillating! There are no words! I can't believe what I just saw! The Phillies win ... theeeeeeeeeeeeee Phillies win! And that's a Phils winner! You can put it on the boarrrrrrrd ... YES! Long drive to deep. Left. Center field. And that ball is ... OUTTA HEEEERRRRRREEEEE ... Jay-son Werth, with a two-run, home-run, and the Phils win it, 7-6!! Hard to believe, Harry!
You name the game-ending hyperbole, and it applied to today's game. As I watched football this afternoon, I kept my eye on the score updates that FOX kept cycling along with the football scores. And as a Phillies 3-1 lead turned into a 6-3 deficit in the upper-right corner of my TV screen, my anger boiled like a hotdog in those old steamer trays that Charlie Frank used to tote around the Vet in the old days.
As an aside, I miss Charlie. When he'd be out of dogs and someone would flag him down, he'd holler back, "Gotta take my doggy for a walk ... be right back". And that man knew how to slather the Gulden's onto every Phillie Frank :)
Anyway, imagine my surprise when, between football games, I copped my wife's Blackberry to check on the score of the Phils' game. 7-6! What happened?!?!? How? Who? A quick flip over to MLB Network to catch Quick Pitch ... and my questions were answered.
Joe Blanton continues, unfortunately, to refuse to last into and beyond the 6th inning so that the bullpen can get some needed rest down the stretch. I am amazed at Blanton: with the work that Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels have been doing, he simply doesn't get it. Cruising along with eight Ks through five innings, he doesn't take a page from their book and stay focused ... he gets lazy and then gets in trouble ... then gets his pitch count up above 90, which is where the real fun starts.
Of course, the big series starts on Monday, with Jair Jurrjens opposing Cole Hamels. The Braves series will be a playoff preview in the sense that we'll get a chance to see what Games 1-3 of the NLDS will look like on the mound. The rest of the National League will most definitely be watching, since either the Reds, Rockies, Giants, or Padres will be facing those three guys come October 6.
With the three-game lead, the Phils can take two and almost wrap up the division. Taking 2 of 3 would put the Phils at 91-62, the Braves at 87-66 ... leaving the Phils four up with nine to play. Here's what would be needed, then, the final nine games:
- If the Phils go 3-6, the Braves must go 7-2 to tie for the division, 8-1 to win outright
- If the Phils go 4-5, the Braves must go 8-1 to tie for the division, 9-0 to win outright
- If the Phils go 5-4, the Braves must go 9-0 to tie for the division, and cannot win outright
- If the Phils go 6-3, the Braves can only hope for the wild card
Should the Phils lose 2 of 3, then they'd be 90-63, and the Braves would be 88-65, leaving us with:
- If the Phils go 3-6, the Braves must go 5-4 to tie for the division, 6-3 to win outright
- If the Phils go 4-5, the Braves must go 6-3 to tie for the division, 7-2 to win outright
- If the Phils go 5-4, the Braves must go 7-2 to tie for the division, 8-1 to win outright
- If the Phils go 6-3, the Braves must go 8-1 to tie for the division, 9-0 to win outright
- If the Phils go 7-2, the Braves can only hope for the wild card (because one of those Phils wins would be against the Braves)
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Miss A Little ... And You Miss A Lot
September 16: off day
September 15: PHILLIES 10, Florida 4
September 14: PHILLIES 2, Florida 1
September 13: PHILLIES 11, Florida 4
September 12: PHILLIES 3, New York 0
September 11: New York 4, PHILLIES 3
September 10: PHILLIES 8, New York 4
Wow ... take a few days off from blogging, and the Phils go from a half-game lead to a three-game lead! It's just what my professors used to say in college ... if you miss a little, you miss a lot!!
To my faithful readers, my apologies for the lack of posts the past few days. Real life intervened and kept me from posting. Maybe someday, I'll have some contributing writers like other blogs to keep fresh stuff flowing on a daily basis. Until then, I'll catch as catch can.
The recent success of the Phightins has me returning to the topics of "Post Four-Game Losing Streaks" and "Septembers". Since their four-game losing streak (the home sweep by the Astros) on August 23-26, the Phils have gone 16-4 (.800), keeping in tradition with their record after similar four-game streaks in the past four playoff runs.
As to September, the Phils have gone 12-3 (.800), which keeps them in line for another fantastic September run, something they've done every year since 2004. You can find articles on both phenomenon in the Classic Steaks section:
"How Sweep It Is"
"Brad Lidge: The Pitching Walenda"
I'll have more to say in the coming days about the Phils' possible playoff rotation, the health of Jimmy Rollins, and the race for a fourth consecutive NL East flag.
September 15: PHILLIES 10, Florida 4
September 14: PHILLIES 2, Florida 1
September 13: PHILLIES 11, Florida 4
September 12: PHILLIES 3, New York 0
September 11: New York 4, PHILLIES 3
September 10: PHILLIES 8, New York 4
Wow ... take a few days off from blogging, and the Phils go from a half-game lead to a three-game lead! It's just what my professors used to say in college ... if you miss a little, you miss a lot!!
To my faithful readers, my apologies for the lack of posts the past few days. Real life intervened and kept me from posting. Maybe someday, I'll have some contributing writers like other blogs to keep fresh stuff flowing on a daily basis. Until then, I'll catch as catch can.
The recent success of the Phightins has me returning to the topics of "Post Four-Game Losing Streaks" and "Septembers". Since their four-game losing streak (the home sweep by the Astros) on August 23-26, the Phils have gone 16-4 (.800), keeping in tradition with their record after similar four-game streaks in the past four playoff runs.
As to September, the Phils have gone 12-3 (.800), which keeps them in line for another fantastic September run, something they've done every year since 2004. You can find articles on both phenomenon in the Classic Steaks section:
"How Sweep It Is"
"Brad Lidge: The Pitching Walenda"
I'll have more to say in the coming days about the Phils' possible playoff rotation, the health of Jimmy Rollins, and the race for a fourth consecutive NL East flag.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Brad Lidge: The Pitching Walenda
September 2: PHILLIES 12, Colorado 11
Brad Lidge enjoys working without a net. If he continues toying with ninth-inning leads like he has been for the last two seasons, many Phillies fans are going to need to be gathered up with a net and taken to Byberry.
In a pennant race, every win is precious, and with the Phillies' recent records in September, Mr. Lidge's highwire act is eventually going to wear thin. I know I've grown weary of it, and have been since last August.
All things considered, Phillies fans have to be pleased by the 6-1 road trip out West, always a dangerous proposition. And since the Mets decided to actually play baseball tonight, the Phils enter their weekend series with Milwaukee just two games back of the Braves, and two games up on the Giants for the wild card (pending, of course, the outcome of the Giants' game out West later).
It was a great comeback by the fellas, Howard jacking one, followed by Werth's bomb to tie the game. Chase's five RBI in the seventh were welcome relief to fans tired of seeing ducks left on the pond time and time again. Given the team's recent history in September, there is much optimism to be had in the Quaker City (and anywhere Phillies fans can be found). Let's take a look at the team's record in September in the Charlie Manuel Era:
2005 15-12 .556
2006 18-10 .643
2007 17-11 .607
2008 17- 8 .680
2009 17-13 .567
2010 2- 0 1.000
TOTAL 86-54 .614
Folks, it's one thing to have a September such as 2008. It's another, completely, to have winning September records on as consistent a basis as the Phils have had under Charlie. The streak actually started with a 17-8 September in 2004 under then-skipper Larry Bowa. If you include that, the Phils have, since moving to The Bank in '04, gone a collective 103-62 (.624) in the month of September. If that doesn't make you go "hmmmmmmm", nothing will.
As a matter of fact, let's take a look at the September records of every Phillies team to qualify for the post-season prior to 2004:
1915 21-10 .677
1950 12-16 .429
1976 15-14 .517
1977 19-10 .655
1978 19-12 .613
1980 19-10 .655
1981 16-12 .571
1983 22- 7 .759
1993 14-13 .519
TOTAL 157-104 .602
One would guess that most of you reading this would have assumed great Septembers by Phillies teams making the post-season. 1950 stands out because a .500 month means no need for Dick Sisler's homer against the Dodgers as the Phils would have taken the division by three games. 1993's lackluster September could have been disastrous, as the Expos (if you recall) went on a 20-2 run in late August and early September that made a real race out of the NL East.
And so, dear Phillie fans, we start September on a positive note, and can make it even more positive by knocking the Brewers around this weekend. I hope everyone will have a happy, safe, and baseball-filled Labor Day weekend ... enjoy the food, friends, family, and Phillies!!!
Order up!
Brad Lidge enjoys working without a net. If he continues toying with ninth-inning leads like he has been for the last two seasons, many Phillies fans are going to need to be gathered up with a net and taken to Byberry.
In a pennant race, every win is precious, and with the Phillies' recent records in September, Mr. Lidge's highwire act is eventually going to wear thin. I know I've grown weary of it, and have been since last August.
All things considered, Phillies fans have to be pleased by the 6-1 road trip out West, always a dangerous proposition. And since the Mets decided to actually play baseball tonight, the Phils enter their weekend series with Milwaukee just two games back of the Braves, and two games up on the Giants for the wild card (pending, of course, the outcome of the Giants' game out West later).
It was a great comeback by the fellas, Howard jacking one, followed by Werth's bomb to tie the game. Chase's five RBI in the seventh were welcome relief to fans tired of seeing ducks left on the pond time and time again. Given the team's recent history in September, there is much optimism to be had in the Quaker City (and anywhere Phillies fans can be found). Let's take a look at the team's record in September in the Charlie Manuel Era:
2005 15-12 .556
2006 18-10 .643
2007 17-11 .607
2008 17- 8 .680
2009 17-13 .567
2010 2- 0 1.000
TOTAL 86-54 .614
Folks, it's one thing to have a September such as 2008. It's another, completely, to have winning September records on as consistent a basis as the Phils have had under Charlie. The streak actually started with a 17-8 September in 2004 under then-skipper Larry Bowa. If you include that, the Phils have, since moving to The Bank in '04, gone a collective 103-62 (.624) in the month of September. If that doesn't make you go "hmmmmmmm", nothing will.
As a matter of fact, let's take a look at the September records of every Phillies team to qualify for the post-season prior to 2004:
1915 21-10 .677
1950 12-16 .429
1976 15-14 .517
1977 19-10 .655
1978 19-12 .613
1980 19-10 .655
1981 16-12 .571
1983 22- 7 .759
1993 14-13 .519
TOTAL 157-104 .602
One would guess that most of you reading this would have assumed great Septembers by Phillies teams making the post-season. 1950 stands out because a .500 month means no need for Dick Sisler's homer against the Dodgers as the Phils would have taken the division by three games. 1993's lackluster September could have been disastrous, as the Expos (if you recall) went on a 20-2 run in late August and early September that made a real race out of the NL East.
And so, dear Phillie fans, we start September on a positive note, and can make it even more positive by knocking the Brewers around this weekend. I hope everyone will have a happy, safe, and baseball-filled Labor Day weekend ... enjoy the food, friends, family, and Phillies!!!
Order up!
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Oh No!! Oh ... NO No-No ... Like Somehow, That's Better
August 30: Los Angeles 3, PHILLIES 0
Were the Phils going through a divorce, Roy Halliday would have grounds for lack of support. Another quality start, wasted because the Phils can't hit their way out of a deep-fried Twinkie (mmmmm ... deeeeep friiiiiiied Twinkieeeeee ....). Not much to say about last night's game, so let's take a look at the case of Halladay v. Philadelphia Phillies ...
Here are the hitting stats for the Phils in the 10 games in which Halladay has been charged with the loss (10):
AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO
4/26 @SF L,1-5 31 1 4 1 0 0 7 11
5/18 PIT L,1-2 31 1 6 0 0 0 3 8
5/23 BOS L,3-8 35 3 8 4 1 1 2 2
6/10 FLA L,0-2 30 0 4 3 0 0 1 6
6/15 @NYY L,3-8 32 3 5 0 0 0 4 9
6/20 MIN L,1-4 31 1 4 0 0 1 0 2
6/30 @CIN L,3-4 36 3 9 0 0 1 1 8
7/18 @CHI L,6-11 36 6 9 1 0 3 7 8
8/25 HOU L,2-3 32 2 7 1 0 1 2 7
8/30 @LA L,0-1 27 0 1 0 0 0 2 7
321 20 57 10 1 7 29 68
All that lack of hitting comes out to a .176 average, .280 slugging, and .245 on-base percentage. Absolutely unacceptable for one of the most potent offenses in the National League the past four seasons. The stats will tell you that Halladay has received 14 runs of support in his 10 losses, and the table above shows 20 ... that's because I took game-end stats and didn't back out the stats accumulated after Halladay left the game. For example, the Phils scored three in the ninth against the Yankees, long after Roy had been knocked around on June 15. So, in that game, they gave him zero run support.
It should go without saying that run support is crucial for two reasons. First, and most obvious, is that you can't win if you don't score (or you don't score more than the other guy). Second, and again, fairly obvious, is that a pitcher, any pitcher, pitches with more confidence and more daring when he has a lead to play with. He'll throw stuff just on the black in tight situations because he has some runs to work with. Umpires help, too, as a pitcher with a nice lead, who is around the plate, will generally get a lot of close calls, which simply reinforces the aggressiveness and establishes dominance.
The Phillies have to be careful; these Braves are not going away, and to expect the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals to be of any help (as we've seen the last two nights) is a pipe dream at best. While everyone waits for the Braves' youth to implode, the Braves have the one thing in this race that no other team has ... one of the winningest managers in the history of baseball, and a first-ballot Hall of Famer, in their dugout.
Order up!
Were the Phils going through a divorce, Roy Halliday would have grounds for lack of support. Another quality start, wasted because the Phils can't hit their way out of a deep-fried Twinkie (mmmmm ... deeeeep friiiiiiied Twinkieeeeee ....). Not much to say about last night's game, so let's take a look at the case of Halladay v. Philadelphia Phillies ...
Here are the hitting stats for the Phils in the 10 games in which Halladay has been charged with the loss (10):
AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO
4/26 @SF L,1-5 31 1 4 1 0 0 7 11
5/18 PIT L,1-2 31 1 6 0 0 0 3 8
5/23 BOS L,3-8 35 3 8 4 1 1 2 2
6/10 FLA L,0-2 30 0 4 3 0 0 1 6
6/15 @NYY L,3-8 32 3 5 0 0 0 4 9
6/20 MIN L,1-4 31 1 4 0 0 1 0 2
6/30 @CIN L,3-4 36 3 9 0 0 1 1 8
7/18 @CHI L,6-11 36 6 9 1 0 3 7 8
8/25 HOU L,2-3 32 2 7 1 0 1 2 7
8/30 @LA L,0-1 27 0 1 0 0 0 2 7
321 20 57 10 1 7 29 68
All that lack of hitting comes out to a .176 average, .280 slugging, and .245 on-base percentage. Absolutely unacceptable for one of the most potent offenses in the National League the past four seasons. The stats will tell you that Halladay has received 14 runs of support in his 10 losses, and the table above shows 20 ... that's because I took game-end stats and didn't back out the stats accumulated after Halladay left the game. For example, the Phils scored three in the ninth against the Yankees, long after Roy had been knocked around on June 15. So, in that game, they gave him zero run support.
It should go without saying that run support is crucial for two reasons. First, and most obvious, is that you can't win if you don't score (or you don't score more than the other guy). Second, and again, fairly obvious, is that a pitcher, any pitcher, pitches with more confidence and more daring when he has a lead to play with. He'll throw stuff just on the black in tight situations because he has some runs to work with. Umpires help, too, as a pitcher with a nice lead, who is around the plate, will generally get a lot of close calls, which simply reinforces the aggressiveness and establishes dominance.
The Phillies have to be careful; these Braves are not going away, and to expect the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals to be of any help (as we've seen the last two nights) is a pipe dream at best. While everyone waits for the Braves' youth to implode, the Braves have the one thing in this race that no other team has ... one of the winningest managers in the history of baseball, and a first-ballot Hall of Famer, in their dugout.
Order up!
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