The San Francisco Giants did a terrific job down the stretch, pitching their way to the NL West crown and then a four-game dismantling of the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.
The question that has come up most, in my mind, has been a chicken-and-egg thing: Did the Giants pitch so well as to overwhelm their opponents' bats? Or were the teams they faced down the stretch in batting funks of their own, which may have had as much to do with the Giants' success as anything the pitchers may have done?
Of course, the question was really spurred on by what happened to the Phils in May, June, and into July. They couldn't hit. If you recall, in one series, they made the Mets starting staff look like Spahn, Sain, Koufax, Gibson, and Mathewson, all rolled into one. So, is it possible that the Giants benefitted in September, October, and the NLCS by playing weak-hitting teams that played into the Giants' strength?
I took the batting splits for September/October from Baseball-Reference.com and did some very base analysis, using a simple weighted-average method to determine whether the Giants, or even the Phils, may have had super stretch runs because of the batting woes of their stretch-run opponents. Let's take a look at the Giants:
SEP/OCT
OPPONENT GMS VS OPP AVG WEIGHTED
COL 4 .264 1.056
LA 6 .212 1.272
ARI 6 .235 1.410
SD 7 .230 1.610
MIL 3 .253 .759
CHI 3 .232 .696
ATL (NLDS) 4 .247 .988
TOTALS 33 .236 7.791
Games vs. teams hitting .250+ in SEP/OCT: 7
Games vs. teams hitting .240-.249: 4
Games vs. teams hitting .230-.239: 9
Games vs. teams hitting .220-.229: 7
Games vs. teams hitting .210-.219: 6
As you can see, the Giants played 22 games against teams hitting .239 or less in the stretch run. The NL average for September and October regular season games was .247. The Giants played teams that hit a combined 4 percent lower than the league average. Obviously, that's not much; about two hits over a five-game series. But, they still faced competition that hit lower than the average of all teams, including the Phils, who hit .285 in September and October.
Let's now turn our attention to the Phils ...
SEP/OCT
OPPONENT GMS VS OPP AVG WEIGHTED
LA 1 .212 .212
COL 1 .264 .264
MIL 3 .253 .759
FLA 7 .246 1.722
NY 6 .252 1.512
WAS 6 .228 1.368
ATL 6 .247 1.482
CIN (NLDS) 3 .265 .795
TOTALS 33 .246 8.114
Games vs. teams hitting .250+ in SEP/OCT: 13
Games vs. teams hitting .240-.249: 13
Games vs. teams hitting .230-.239: 0
Games vs. teams hitting .220-.229: 6
Games vs. teams hitting .210-.219: 1
The Phils, on the other hand, played only seven games against teams that hit .239 or less in the months of September and October. Their opponents' weighted-average of .246 is just one point less than the league average of .247. Additionally, while the Giants faced only two opponents down the stretch with batting averages over .250 (Colorado and Milwaukee), the Phils faced four such teams (Colorado, Milwaukee, the Mets, and Cincinnati).
The Giants' record in those seven games? 4-3 (3-1 vs. COL, 1-2 vs. MIL) And the Phillies? 9-4 (1-0 vs. COL, 2-1 vs. MIL, 3-3 vs. NY, 3-0 vs. CIN).
What does all this mean? It simply means that the Phillies faced better-hitting (.250 or better) clubs down the stretch than the Giants did. It means that the Phils handled those teams very well (9-4, including the sweep of the vaunted Reds' offense in the NLDS), but that the Giants were so-so at 4-3.
Does this translate into a Phillies series win? On paper, it certainly makes a series win seem more likely. As the series unfolds, we'll find out more about the true nature of the Giants' pitching staff down the stretch, and we'll finally be able to answer whether the Giants' staff is that good, or whether they took advantage of favorable opposing batting conditions to get themselves into the NLCS.
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Oh Thank Heaven ... Streak's At Eleven!!
September 24: PHILLIES 3, New York 2 (Magic Number is 2)
Record since the "Houston Massacre": 23-4
Record in September: 19-3
On Wednesday, I wheeled the virtual champagne from the virtual wine cellar into the virtual chiller. Tonight, I moved the virtual champagne from the virtual chiller to the virtual ice.
Yes, Phillies fans, your long, long wait for the 2010 Eastern Division Championship is almost over. How many of us, myself included, saw this coming after the Phils turned a 24-13 start into a 49-46 record in July with a horrendous 25-33 run in which the team simply couldn't hit to save its life? How many of us ... let's be honest ... gave up on the club's chances at the division, and started computing scenarios in which we could still get the Wild Card? I know I did.
But I the one thing I refused to do is completely give up hope that the guys could at least get into the playoffs. I love the Phils too much to give up on 'em completely, not in July. I never thought they'd do what they've done, but I wasn't bailing on them until it was clear that they couldn't catch anyone.
Think about how this team could have stacked up with some of the great all-time teams if they had played like champions in that 58-game funk. Let's take a look at it. The Phils are now an MLB-best 93-61. Subtracting out that 25-33 stretch, and the Phils are 68-28 in games prior to and after that 58-game aberration. Here is what the Phils' record could have looked like (as of tonight) if:
The Phils had played those 58 games at their post-49-and-46 pace (.745) clip: 111-43
The Phils had played those 58 games at their pre-49-and-46 pace (.648): 105-49
The Phils had played those 58 games at their current pace (.604): 103-51
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .556 (90-win) pace: 100-54
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .500 pace: 97-57
Obviously, this is pure fantasy, as no one really knows what would have happened if the Phils had played much, much better over those 58 games than they actually did. For openers, would they still have coveted Roy Oswalt with such a great record? Would they have needed him?
The list above is interesting when you consider how we saw this club coming out of Spring Training. We all thought this team, with Halladay, was even better than last year's team, and had the word "powerhouse dynasty" written all over it. Did we think 100 wins were possible? No, I don't think so ... I saw very few article or blog postings talking about 100 wins (Comments to posts? Yes, but few bloggers themselves were predicting a cool century). But if you look at what the Phils were capable of, even playing those 58 games at a 90-win pace (100-54 with eight games to play), you get the sense that the injuries and long hitting slump may have robbed us of a place in the pantheon of great single-season teams.
As it is, the current September is the stuff of legend. As much as September of 2007 was epic, this has been a September that could rank as one of the greatest closing kicks ever by a pennant contender. It's almost New York Giant-like in magnitude.
The Giants were 20-5 in September of 1951 to make up seven games after a 20-9 August ... the Phils are presently 19-3 making up three games after an 18-10 August. That's a 40-14 finish for the Giants versus a current skein of 37-13. Bet you haven't seen anyone compare the 2010 Phils to the 1951 Giants, have you?
So, let's enjoy this ride while it lasts, and keep reminding ourselves that we're watching something absolutely historical as the Phils continue to ride roughshod on the NL. Like you, I hope the bottom doesn't fall out ... but somehow, I think the way this club responded to all the injuries (remember what happened to the Mets when they lost Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, and Putz last year) has them believing that they are the best team on the planet.
And I agree ... the Phils are the best team in all of baseball right now. And just like I won't argue the merits of some Whiz wit on my steak ... I won't argue my previous point.
Record since the "Houston Massacre": 23-4
Record in September: 19-3
On Wednesday, I wheeled the virtual champagne from the virtual wine cellar into the virtual chiller. Tonight, I moved the virtual champagne from the virtual chiller to the virtual ice.
Yes, Phillies fans, your long, long wait for the 2010 Eastern Division Championship is almost over. How many of us, myself included, saw this coming after the Phils turned a 24-13 start into a 49-46 record in July with a horrendous 25-33 run in which the team simply couldn't hit to save its life? How many of us ... let's be honest ... gave up on the club's chances at the division, and started computing scenarios in which we could still get the Wild Card? I know I did.
But I the one thing I refused to do is completely give up hope that the guys could at least get into the playoffs. I love the Phils too much to give up on 'em completely, not in July. I never thought they'd do what they've done, but I wasn't bailing on them until it was clear that they couldn't catch anyone.
Think about how this team could have stacked up with some of the great all-time teams if they had played like champions in that 58-game funk. Let's take a look at it. The Phils are now an MLB-best 93-61. Subtracting out that 25-33 stretch, and the Phils are 68-28 in games prior to and after that 58-game aberration. Here is what the Phils' record could have looked like (as of tonight) if:
The Phils had played those 58 games at their post-49-and-46 pace (.745) clip: 111-43
The Phils had played those 58 games at their pre-49-and-46 pace (.648): 105-49
The Phils had played those 58 games at their current pace (.604): 103-51
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .556 (90-win) pace: 100-54
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .500 pace: 97-57
Obviously, this is pure fantasy, as no one really knows what would have happened if the Phils had played much, much better over those 58 games than they actually did. For openers, would they still have coveted Roy Oswalt with such a great record? Would they have needed him?
The list above is interesting when you consider how we saw this club coming out of Spring Training. We all thought this team, with Halladay, was even better than last year's team, and had the word "powerhouse dynasty" written all over it. Did we think 100 wins were possible? No, I don't think so ... I saw very few article or blog postings talking about 100 wins (Comments to posts? Yes, but few bloggers themselves were predicting a cool century). But if you look at what the Phils were capable of, even playing those 58 games at a 90-win pace (100-54 with eight games to play), you get the sense that the injuries and long hitting slump may have robbed us of a place in the pantheon of great single-season teams.
As it is, the current September is the stuff of legend. As much as September of 2007 was epic, this has been a September that could rank as one of the greatest closing kicks ever by a pennant contender. It's almost New York Giant-like in magnitude.
The Giants were 20-5 in September of 1951 to make up seven games after a 20-9 August ... the Phils are presently 19-3 making up three games after an 18-10 August. That's a 40-14 finish for the Giants versus a current skein of 37-13. Bet you haven't seen anyone compare the 2010 Phils to the 1951 Giants, have you?
So, let's enjoy this ride while it lasts, and keep reminding ourselves that we're watching something absolutely historical as the Phils continue to ride roughshod on the NL. Like you, I hope the bottom doesn't fall out ... but somehow, I think the way this club responded to all the injuries (remember what happened to the Mets when they lost Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, and Putz last year) has them believing that they are the best team on the planet.
And I agree ... the Phils are the best team in all of baseball right now. And just like I won't argue the merits of some Whiz wit on my steak ... I won't argue my previous point.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Houston, We Have A Problem
August 23: Houston 3, PHILLIES 2
So, as yet another pennant race is shaping up, who rolls into town for a crucial, four-game set? Yep, you guessed it: the Astros. And, just like 2006, when key September losses to Houston cost the Phils a wild card berth, we once again drop one to a team that's not even in a post-season race.
Brett Myers, to his credit, pitched very well (as I suspected he would in my post from last evening), keeping his team in the game long enough so that Carlos Lee could nick the bullpen for the game-winning hit. What I didn't know, but discovered after the game, is that Myers has gone six innings or more in 26 consecutive starts, something that hasn't been done since Arizona's Curt Schilling went 32 in a row in 2002. Kudos to Brett for posting such an impressive string of starts.
Joe Blanton pitched extremely well, given his troubles this year. Seven innings and one run. But the 'pen let him down, and that's been a huge bugaboo with the Phillies the last two years. Bullpen meltdowns happen over the course of 162 games ... but we've experienced way too many the last two years. And in 2010, given the injuries and inconsistent play from the offense, the 'pen simply has to be holding up its end of the bargain. While they've done a good job, it hasn't been playoff-caliber at times, and at others, it's been eliminated-on-opening-day caliber.
One of my favorite blogs, The Good Phight, mentioned that this is a series that could easily go to the Astros, 3-1. I scoffed at that when I read it this morning over a Butterscotch Krimpet and some Bosco. But I'm not really scoffing, now. I'm concerned that it might actually come to fruition. I don't think anyone wants a long homestand to end in disaster, and possibly with the Phils looking at a four-game deficit or worse heading into that dreaded "West Coast Swing" (programming note: a particular 9-0 "West Coast Swing" will be the subject of a coming WABAC Machine article).
Many Phillies fans see the Astros as Phillie Killers ... but that's plainly a myth. As you can see, since 2005, the only time the Astros "killed" the Phils was the year the 'Stros went to the World Series:
PHILLIES RECORD VERSUS HOUSTON, 2005-2010
2010 (including tonight): 3-1
2009: 2-6
2008: 4-3
2007: 3-3
2006: 4-2
2005: 0-6
Yes, we lost a pair of September games to the Astros in Philadelphia in 2006 that cost us a wild card berth by one game, but those were in early September, and there were other games later in the month we could have won that would have made the losses to the Astros inconsequential. But to label the Astros as "Phillie Killers" would be a misnomer. Interesting how fiction quickly becomes reality.
So, as yet another pennant race is shaping up, who rolls into town for a crucial, four-game set? Yep, you guessed it: the Astros. And, just like 2006, when key September losses to Houston cost the Phils a wild card berth, we once again drop one to a team that's not even in a post-season race.
Brett Myers, to his credit, pitched very well (as I suspected he would in my post from last evening), keeping his team in the game long enough so that Carlos Lee could nick the bullpen for the game-winning hit. What I didn't know, but discovered after the game, is that Myers has gone six innings or more in 26 consecutive starts, something that hasn't been done since Arizona's Curt Schilling went 32 in a row in 2002. Kudos to Brett for posting such an impressive string of starts.
Joe Blanton pitched extremely well, given his troubles this year. Seven innings and one run. But the 'pen let him down, and that's been a huge bugaboo with the Phillies the last two years. Bullpen meltdowns happen over the course of 162 games ... but we've experienced way too many the last two years. And in 2010, given the injuries and inconsistent play from the offense, the 'pen simply has to be holding up its end of the bargain. While they've done a good job, it hasn't been playoff-caliber at times, and at others, it's been eliminated-on-opening-day caliber.
One of my favorite blogs, The Good Phight, mentioned that this is a series that could easily go to the Astros, 3-1. I scoffed at that when I read it this morning over a Butterscotch Krimpet and some Bosco. But I'm not really scoffing, now. I'm concerned that it might actually come to fruition. I don't think anyone wants a long homestand to end in disaster, and possibly with the Phils looking at a four-game deficit or worse heading into that dreaded "West Coast Swing" (programming note: a particular 9-0 "West Coast Swing" will be the subject of a coming WABAC Machine article).
Many Phillies fans see the Astros as Phillie Killers ... but that's plainly a myth. As you can see, since 2005, the only time the Astros "killed" the Phils was the year the 'Stros went to the World Series:
PHILLIES RECORD VERSUS HOUSTON, 2005-2010
2010 (including tonight): 3-1
2009: 2-6
2008: 4-3
2007: 3-3
2006: 4-2
2005: 0-6
Yes, we lost a pair of September games to the Astros in Philadelphia in 2006 that cost us a wild card berth by one game, but those were in early September, and there were other games later in the month we could have won that would have made the losses to the Astros inconsequential. But to label the Astros as "Phillie Killers" would be a misnomer. Interesting how fiction quickly becomes reality.
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