Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Riding On The Shoulders Of Giants?

The San Francisco Giants did a terrific job down the stretch, pitching their way to the NL West crown and then a four-game dismantling of the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.

The question that has come up most, in my mind, has been a chicken-and-egg thing:  Did the Giants pitch so well as to overwhelm their opponents' bats?  Or were the teams they faced down the stretch in batting funks of their own, which may have had as much to do with the Giants' success as anything the pitchers may have done?

Of course, the question was really spurred on by what happened to the Phils in May, June, and into July.  They couldn't hit.  If you recall, in one series, they made the Mets starting staff look like Spahn, Sain, Koufax, Gibson, and Mathewson, all rolled into one.  So, is it possible that the Giants benefitted in September, October, and the NLCS by playing weak-hitting teams that played into the Giants' strength?

I took the batting splits for September/October from Baseball-Reference.com and did some very base analysis, using a simple weighted-average method to determine whether the Giants, or even the Phils, may have had super stretch runs because of the batting woes of their stretch-run opponents.  Let's take a look at the Giants:

                   SEP/OCT
OPPONENT  GMS VS   OPP AVG    WEIGHTED
COL          4       .264       1.056
LA           6       .212       1.272
ARI          6       .235       1.410
SD           7       .230       1.610
MIL          3       .253        .759
CHI          3       .232        .696
ATL (NLDS)   4       .247        .988
TOTALS      33       .236       7.791

Games vs. teams hitting .250+ in SEP/OCT:  7
Games vs. teams hitting .240-.249:         4
Games vs. teams hitting .230-.239:         9
Games vs. teams hitting .220-.229:         7
Games vs. teams hitting .210-.219:         6

As you can see, the Giants played 22 games against teams hitting .239 or less in the stretch run.  The NL average for September and October regular season games was .247.  The Giants played teams that hit a combined 4 percent lower than the league average.  Obviously, that's not much; about two hits over a five-game series.  But, they still faced competition that hit lower than the average of all teams, including the Phils, who hit .285 in September and October.

Let's now turn our attention to the Phils ...

                SEP/OCT
OPPONENT GMS VS OPP AVG WEIGHTED
LA          1     .212     .212
COL         1     .264     .264
MIL         3     .253     .759
FLA         7     .246    1.722
NY          6     .252    1.512
WAS         6     .228    1.368
ATL         6     .247    1.482
CIN (NLDS)  3     .265     .795
TOTALS     33     .246    8.114

Games vs. teams hitting .250+ in SEP/OCT: 13
Games vs. teams hitting .240-.249:        13
Games vs. teams hitting .230-.239:         0
Games vs. teams hitting .220-.229:         6
Games vs. teams hitting .210-.219:         1


The Phils, on the other hand, played only seven games against teams that hit .239 or less in the months of September and October.  Their opponents' weighted-average of .246 is just one point less than the league average of .247.  Additionally, while the Giants faced only two opponents down the stretch with batting averages over .250 (Colorado and Milwaukee), the Phils faced four such teams (Colorado, Milwaukee, the Mets, and Cincinnati).

The Giants' record in those seven games?  4-3 (3-1 vs. COL, 1-2 vs. MIL)  And the Phillies?  9-4 (1-0 vs. COL, 2-1 vs. MIL, 3-3 vs. NY, 3-0 vs. CIN).

What does all this mean?  It simply means that the Phillies faced better-hitting (.250 or better) clubs down the stretch than the Giants did.  It means that the Phils handled those teams very well (9-4, including the sweep of the vaunted Reds' offense in the NLDS), but that the Giants were so-so at 4-3.

Does this translate into a Phillies series win?  On paper, it certainly makes a series win seem more likely.  As the series unfolds, we'll find out more about the true nature of the Giants' pitching staff down the stretch, and we'll finally be able to answer whether the Giants' staff is that good, or whether they took advantage of favorable opposing batting conditions to get themselves into the NLCS.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Dr. No

October 6, Game 1, NLDS:  PHILLIES 4, Cincinnati 0

When you look at the record books, there aren't very many places where the Phillies hold some special record that everyone who's a baseball fan knows by heart.  It's not Steve Carlton with seven no-hitters.  It wasn't Mike Schmidt with 755 homeruns.  Pete Rose had his 44-game hitting streak the year before he became a Phillie.

But tonight, the Phillies finally were able to have one of their own etched into the pantheon of great postseason games with Roy Halladay's no-hitter.  Doc joins Don Larsen as the only pitchers in the history of the game to pitch a no-hitter in the post-season.  And for a change, Phillies fans get to proudly puff their chests as they celebrate, literally, a game for the ages.

There really are no words to express how many fans, including myself, feel on this momentous occasion.  That we are joyous, proud, ecstatic, pumped, psyched, or whatever adjective you wish to use should come as no surprise to even the most casual of fans.  That this means so much, to so many, is simply beyond the comprehension of "outsiders".

We're like everyone else.  We want our teams to win.  We're not just satisfied to make the playoffs; we want the teams to go all the way.  In that respect, we're not much different than fans in Boston, LA, Chicago, or even our fellow fans in Cincinnati.

But in many ways, it's vey different for us.  So many years of watching others continue playing baseball while our guys were hitting the golf course.  So many decades of futility, amassing over 10,000 losses, the most in the history of the game.  After awhile, the losing becomes so customary that the winning seasons, the big wins, and the championships -- few and far between --- take on mythical status and a meaning beyond the joy of rooting for a winner.

If you watched the movie, "Invincible", the story about Vince Papale (and what self-respecting Philadelphia sports fan hasn't?), there is a scene in the movie where Vince's dad, who has mentioned Steve Van Buren's touchdown in the 1948 NFL Championship Game more than a few times already, has a heart-to-heart talk with his son on the steps of his rowhome.

He tells Vince that he knows how he talks about that touchdown all the time because, after his wife had died, the joy of that memory helped him get through the pain.  That the joy of that memory had helped him get through the tough times at work, or in general.  And if you grew up in Philadelphia, or the Philadelphia area, you understood what he meant.  For his generation, it was Van Buren's TD.  For my generation, it was Rick MacLeish, tipping home Andre Dupont's slapper from the point, or Willie Wilson, striking out to end Game Six.

And tonight, a new generation of Philadelphia sports fans have been granted the privilege of being witness to another memory that will be with us, and bring a smile to our faces, and joy to our hearts, for the rest of our lives.  Tonight, we didn't just witness the brilliance of Roy Halladay, we witnessed a moment for the ages; a game that will be mentioned for as long as there are playoff games to be played.

Thanks, Doc.  Bet you never thought being in the postseason would be this good, did you?

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Worley Gives Braves The Bird

Although the game is still in progress (Phils lead, 5-0, middle of eight), I have to say ... what a great performance by Vance Worley!!  One hit in five innings against a team desperate to make the playoffs.

Fantastic job, Vance!!  And THANK YOU!!!

National League Playoff Possibilities

Here's what we know at 12:50PM, Central Time:

1) The PHILLIES are the #1 seed in the NL, and will host either Cincinnati (if Atlanta wins the Wild Card), or San Francisco/San Diego if they win the Wild Card

2) The Cincinnati Reds are the #3 seed in the NL, and will play the PHILLIES or the NL West Champion if both the Giants and Padres qualify for the postseason.

Here's where it gets tricky:

First, the "automatic clinch" scenarios:

1) Braves clinch the Wild Card with two wins
2) Braves clinch the Wild Card with one win and one Padres loss
3) Padres and Giants clinch playoff spots with two Padres wins and two Braves losses (the Padres would win the West on a tie-breaker)

Next, the simple playoff scenario:

1) Braves and Padres would play a one-game playoff for the Wild Card if the Braves lose two games and the Padres win one game

Finally, the complex playoff scenario:

The Braves win one game, while the Padres win both games.  That would leave the Braves at 91-71, the Giants at 91-71, and the Padres at 91-71.

In a situation such as this, there is no simple tie-breaker.  Instead, two additional games are needed to determine playoff seeding and divisional champion:

1) The Padres and Giants would play a one-game playoff on Monday to determine the NL West Champion
2) The loser of that game would play the Braves on Tuesday to determine the Wild Card

This is the situation that would greatly benefit the Phils.  Why?  Because the Giants and Padres would have to burn through their #1 starters to win the NL West, leaving them unavailable for the NLDS opener.  Additionally, if the NL West loser then wins the Wild Card, they'll have burned through their top two starters to win the Wild Card, making them unavailable for the first two games against the Phils.

Interesting times, eh?

The First Cliff Lee Deal: How It Made The Phils Better

When the Phillies traded Cliff Lee this past off-season for the chance to get Roy Halladay, Phillies fans were left scratching their heads.  Sure, Halladay was a great addition, they said.  But why not have Halladay *and* Lee?  The thought here being that Cole Hamels may not return to 2008 form, but would fall somewhere between 2008 and 2009.  So, we needed a #2 starter.

But here's why what actually happened turned out brilliantly, even if it all was simply a happy accident.

Let's go back to July 2009.  J.P. Ricciardi, then the GM of the Blue Jays, saw the young, less-experienced Ruben Amaro coming to ask for Roy Halladay.  Ricciardi, eager to prove to Jays fans that he was a shrewd wheeler-dealer who would get max value for a guy the Jays weren't going to be able to keep, stuck a gun in Ruben's ribs and demanded J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and others, in return for Doc.

Ruben laughed, claiming that the gun was tickling his ribs.  Looking back at Ricciardi, Amaro's response was akin to: "Seriously, J.P., who do you really want?"  Informed that he wasn't kidding, Amaro pinned a $20 bill to Ricciardi's shirt and wished him the best of luck.

Amaro then turned his sights on Lee, who cost the Phils some of their Top Ten prospects, but not Drabek, Brown, or Taylor.  "Genius!", we said.  "Brilliant!", said the two Guinness guys.  "Outstanding, Private Pyle!", said Gunnery Sergeant Hartman.

The commotion of Lee's subsequent trade centered, from the fans' standpoint, on "Why can't we have them both?"  From the club's standpoint, they saw Lee as a rent-a-pitcher who wanted a longer contract and bigger payday than the Phils' management were philosophically prepared to give.  From Lee's standpoint (if his agent is to be believed), he wanted to stay in Philadelphia.

Here's the connundrum, if you're Ruben Amaro:  Your big acquisition wants a bigger deal than you're willing to give.  Your big acquisition's agent, hoping to forment anger in the fan base, tells the media that no such demands were made and that his client loves the city and its fans.  You can hold the line, and then watch the Yankees swoop in and get your big acqusition, leaving you with nothing to show for your bold move. 

If I was Ruben, I would have done exactly what he did when faced with the same situation:  maximize the moves I can make, and pray that what was essentially Lee-for-Halladay doesn't blow up in my face.

But here's why I think the first Lee deal ended up making the Phils even better than they would have been if Ruben had been afraid of the gun J.P. Ricciardi held to his ribs in July 2009 ...

It would be foolish to believe that anyone would have planned for J.P. Riccardi to be fired back in July of 2009, so I'm not giving Ruben any credit for being clairvoyant.  But, anyone who's been around baseball as long as Ruben has knew that the Jays were in trouble last year.  Riccardi, despite his bravado, was desperate to get something for Halladay, but couldn't sit back and take peanuts.  That he over-played his hand probably doomed him more in Toronto than the play of the Jays on the field.  But in over-playing his hand, Amaro did discover something ... the Phils may have been the only team with a legitimate chance of being able to trade for Halladay, anyway.

So, when Riccardi got the axe, his replacement, Alex Anthopoulos, knew that he had to get a Halladay deal done.  He also knew he had a suitor in Amaro, and he also knew how badly his predecessor had over-played his hand.  What better way to get started than by finishing what others had begun, especially when Jays fans all knew that Doc was going and never coming back, anyway?

Now, here's where the original Lee deal makes the Phils better today than they would have otherwise been.  And it's a "Jack Sprat"-type of logic and thinking that gets us there.

By not trading Drabek and Happ, Ruben still had pieces to trade.  However, because Anthopoulos already knew that he would never get both Drabek and Happ, he could lower his price and take one, but not both.  That allowed Ruben to have two bullets in his gun (three, if you recall that Lee was still on the Phils when the Halladay deal was being negotiated) for deals, rather than just one.

Trading Lee, despite the bad press, negative repercussions, and the like, brought back prospects to the club that may help them in the future (or may help them land established players in a trade).  That allowed Drabek to be dealt for Halladay.

The Halladay trade made the Phils better instantly, because Cliff Lee, for all his innings-eating, is no Roy Halladay.  But the original deal for Lee made the Phils better because having J.A. Happ still around allowed Ruben to go out and get Roy Oswalt, arguably one of the best second-half pitchers in the game.

Yes, the Oswalt trade was probably a concession/admission that Ruben probably shouldn't have dealt Cliff Lee.  Or, perhaps, the Oswalt trade was Ruben, doing the Walt Jocketty thing and starting a trend of big-time, trade-deadline deals that keep the Phils contending, even in years where they might seem to be out of it.  It wouldn't surprise me if that's not part of the equation here.

So, had Ruben not run from the gun that Ricciardi was holding, we would have had Halladay as the ace, Hamels at #2, Blanton #3, Moyer #4, and Kendrick #5.  That would mean a playoff rotation of Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton.  With a potential 2011 rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, and Kendrick.

But today, we have Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, and Kendrick, with a playoff rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels.  With a 2011 rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, and Kendrick.

It could just be me, but I like the 2010 versions with Halladay and Oswalt, and the 2011 rotation with those guys, much, much better than I like what we could have had.

Just another example of the best deals sometimes being the deals you don't make.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Sending A Message

October 1:  PHILLIES 11, Atlanta 5

Just in case the Braves thought they would roll over a Phillies club with nothing more to play for tonight, the Phils sent a message ... we're the Beast of the East, the Best of the NL.

J-Roll sent a message ... I'm not fully back from the leg problems ... but don't think I'm not a dangerous hitter.

Kyle Kendrick sent a message ... I may have been inconsistent against the rest of the National League, but I have the Braves' number.

Domonic Brown sent a message ... I may be a rookie, but I can draw a key two-out walk to drive home the go-ahead run.

The bullpen, save Zagurski in the ninth, sent a message ... Charlie's going to keep us loose and give us innings, but he's also keeping us fresh ... and while he's doing that, we'll chuck a bunch of goose eggs.

What makes 2010 so much different than the last four years is that:

In 2007, no one expected us to catch the Mets, let alone win the division
In 2008, we were just happy as all get-out to get to the World Series
In 2009, we just wanted a chance to defend the title

In 2010, expectations entering the season were high, became tempered with the offensive malaise of June and July, and soared with the team's play following "The Houston Massacre".  I think folks expect the Phils to win.  Not hope that they'll win.  Not hope for a chance to repeat.

We'll see.

For me, I will follow what has become tradition in my house ... cheesesteaks served for good luck.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Cruisin'

September 28:  Washington 2, PHILLIES 1

Don't know how many of the guys played with hangovers last night, but Roy Oswalt had a very nice tune-up with five shutout innings.  Sure, the guys lost, but they've clinched home field and the NL East ... no reason to push too hard to finish strong and get folks injured.

Although ... it would be nice to see the Phils sweep the Braves this weekend and deny Atlanta a trip to the playoffs (assuming San Diego can get up off the deck).

Not much else to say ...

Monday, September 27, 2010

Halladay ... IN!

September 27:  PHILLIES 8, Washington 0
PHILLIES WIN NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP

And this is why you trade Kyle Drabek!

Yes, it looked grim through the bitter months of June and July, as Phillies fans everywhere, perplexed by the offensive funk and frustrated by the growing injury list, began figuring out just what it would take to capture a measly Wild Card spot.  No one, as I have stated before, could have seen September coming.

But it was for a September stretch run that one Ruben Amaro traded away a piece of Phillie Phuture to get the gunslinger affectionately known as "Doc".  Fans always knew we could use him, but how little did we ever realize how much we would need him.

A 14-1 record against teams in the NL East with a 1.69 ERA.  That's an ace.  That's a guy who wins you divisions, divisional series, an LCS, and a World Series.

And in case there was no doubt, the two-hitter he spun tonight, combined with his 21 wins, sparkling ERA, and perfect game, has probably clinched the 2010 NL Cy Young Award, as well.

Congratulations to the Phils ... let's keep this going and take a place in the pantheon among the greatest dynasties to ever play the game!!

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Kyle Kendrick, You Are The Weakest Link ... Goodbye!

September 26:  New York 7, PHILLIES 3 (Magic Number is still 2)
September 25:  New York 5, PHILLIES 2 (Magic Number is 2)
Record since "Houston Massacre":  23-6
Record in September: 19-5

There's an old saw, with many variations based on the situation, that goes like this:

"If you're sitting at a table, trying to figure out who the idiot is at the table, and you don't recognize anyone else as being the idiot, the idiot is you."

In the "table" known as the Phillies rotation, it appears that Kyle Kendrick still doesn't realize that he's gonna be the odd man out come playoff time.  Pitching six innings as if he's auditioning to replace one of the Big Three, Kyle reverted back to his old ways in the seventh, proving once again that he's the weak link in an otherwise stellar run this past month.

I suppose it's not a surprise to Phillies fans, really.  After all, we've watched this kid pitch inconsistently all season, so why would we be even remotely fooled into thinking that the performances of Messrs. Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, and (lately) Blanton would inspire the young Kendrick to greatness?  I think, in part, it's because we'd love for this September storming of the NL East Bastille to include a flashback to another September of years past, when another young pitcher helped drive the Phils to a title.

Alas, much like Connor McLeod (of the Clan McLeod), there can be only one Marty Bystrom.

And so, all of Phille fandom must wait another day for the Fightins to have a chance to clinch the NL East.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

"Icing The Kicker"? Really, Jerry Manuel?

The Mets' four-year implosion from Major League Team to The Bad News Bears is now complete as manager Jerry Manuel pulled off a move last night that was so bush-league that no self-respecting bush-leaguer would ever do.

In case you missed it, the Mets had runners at the corners with two out in the top of the ninth inning of a game they trailed, 3-2.  Brad Lidge was facing Pedro Feliciano and had an 0-2 count on him.  As Lidge went into his windup, the third base umpire started to frantically wave for time.

Lidge didn't see this, nor did the home plate umpire, as the pitch was delivered.  Feliciano swung and topped the ball back to Lidge, who threw to first for the final out.  Or so the 45,000-plus at Citizens Bank Park thought.  The third base umpire noted that he'd called time before the ball left Lidge's hand, so the out was taken off the board and Lidge would have to pitch to Feliciano again.

Now, a manager cannot simply call time to "ice" a pitcher.  There has to be a good reason to call time in baseball:  an injury, make a pitching change, etc.  So, it's obvious that Jerry Manuel had a good reason to call time in the situation.  Perhaps a pinch-runner at first in case Feliciano hits a ball in the gap to try and take the lead.

Nope.  Jerry Manuel called time to insert a pinch-runner at third base!!!  Keep in mind, there are two outs.  So on a fly ball to the outfield, the game's over.  On a ground ball to the infield, Greg Luzinski could be standing on third ... and the play is never going to be made to the plate.  Wild pitch?  Well, that's always a possibility with Lidge ... but unless the ball comes right back off the backstop to Chooch ... even Luzinski scores from third on a wild one.

So, why waste a pinch runner in that situation?  Why put in a faster runner than Thole with two outs?  I've seen hundreds of games in my lifetime, and I've never seen a team pinch-run for a guy at third with two outs.  There's no sane or legitimate baseball reason for it.  Which probably explains why Jerry Manuel isn't one-tenth the manager Charlie Manuel is.

The only reason for such a move is that Manuel was introducing the concept of "icing the pitcher".  He knows that Lidge is prone to wild pitches, especially with the slider.  Ahead in the count, 0-2, he knows the slider is coming on the next pitch, but the control Lidge has shown of late with the slider, and with the defense Chooch possesses, he also knows Feliciano is toast.

Unless, of course, he can piss off Lidge and get him angry enough to have him over-throw the slider and wild pitch a run home.  He can't affect Lidge by hollering "He ain't no pitcher, he's a belly-itcher" from the dugout, but he can piss him off by calling time just at the start of his windup.  And that's exactly what he did.

Bush league.  Childish.  And a clear indication that the Mets, as an organization, have fallen so far, so fast.  To engage in tactics that scream out to be eradicated from the rulebook.  (Here's how you do it:  once a pitcher comes set on the rubber, only the batter may call time, and the home plate umpire still controls whether or not he will allow it.  To prevent the batter doing to Lidge what Jerry Manuel did, no substitutions can be made when the batter calls time after a pitcher comes set.)

Here's what the Phillies should do to send a clear message to the Mets, and to MLB, about the way you can prevent this from becoming the norm (because you know Tony LaRussa saw this last night and went 'hmmmmmmmm'):  Plunk the first Met batter in today's game ... right between the shoulder blades.

Send the message to the manager that if you're gonna pull that kind of bullshit, your players are going to pay for it.  You start getting your players plunked for getting cute with the rules, and the MLBPA will be screaming for MLB to outlaw the practice.

I have one very strong message for Jerry Manuel, knowing that he will never see it:

You're a joke.  Your team stinks, and the best you can do to try and win a game is to pull a bush league stunt to try and rattle the pitcher.  Why not teach your guys to hit?  Or field?  You're leading by example, and the example you set last night shows why the Mets have mailed in this season and rolled over.  Your choice of tactic last night may have appeared "cat smart", but your players saw it for what it was ... an act of desperation by a manager who has been in over his head since he took over, and who hasn't anything better up his sleeve to improve his team's fortunes.

Your players don't need you, doing magic tricks with the rules.  They need a strong leader with the vision to make the club better through stronger fundamentals, not through rules tricks.  You're doing sleight-of-hand, hoping the players won't see that you have nothing up your sleeve to make them a contending team.  But the players have already read the book; they already know the ending.  And nothing you're doing is instilling any confidence in you.

You've mailed in the season, as well.  And last night's bush-league move was an acknowledgement that you have nothing better to offer your team than a hope and a wish and a dream that if you could just upset Brad Lidge, you could get the wild pitch necessary to tie the game.  And you'd have been satisfied with that, crowed about the "brilliance" of your stratgem, when you should be embarrassed that such a tactic is all you could think of in the situation.

A bolder, more educated manager, seeking to turn fortune 'round, would have gone for the surprise suicide squeeze.  But that would have required execution and fundamentals, something you obviously have spent little or no time discussing with your team.  Which is why the only bullet you had in the chamber was a cheap, immature stunt.

Good luck in your future endeavors, Jerry Manuel.  Because it's highly doubtful that anyone will ever hand you the keys to a major league club again.  Last night's idiocy should have finally opened eyes to the fact the the emperor is not wearing any clothes.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Oh Thank Heaven ... Streak's At Eleven!!

September 24:  PHILLIES 3, New York 2 (Magic Number is 2)
Record since the "Houston Massacre":  23-4
Record in September:  19-3

On Wednesday, I wheeled the virtual champagne from the virtual wine cellar into the virtual chiller.  Tonight, I moved the virtual champagne from the virtual chiller to the virtual ice.

Yes, Phillies fans, your long, long wait for the 2010 Eastern Division Championship is almost over.  How many of us, myself included, saw this coming after the Phils turned a 24-13 start into a 49-46 record in July with a horrendous 25-33 run in which the team simply couldn't hit to save its life?  How many of us ... let's be honest ... gave up on the club's chances at the division, and started computing scenarios in which we could still get the Wild Card?  I know I did.

But I the one thing I refused to do is completely give up hope that the guys could at least get into the playoffs.  I love the Phils too much to give up on 'em completely, not in July.  I never thought they'd do what they've done, but I wasn't bailing on them until it was clear that they couldn't catch anyone.

Think about how this team could have stacked up with some of the great all-time teams if they had played like champions in that 58-game funk.  Let's take a look at it.  The Phils are now an MLB-best 93-61.  Subtracting out that 25-33 stretch, and the Phils are 68-28 in games prior to and after that 58-game aberration.  Here is what the Phils' record could have looked like (as of tonight) if:

The Phils had played those 58 games at their post-49-and-46 pace (.745) clip:  111-43
The Phils had played those 58 games at their pre-49-and-46 pace (.648): 105-49

The Phils had played those 58 games at their current pace (.604):  103-51
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .556 (90-win) pace:  100-54
The Phils had played those 58 games at a .500 pace:  97-57

Obviously, this is pure fantasy, as no one really knows what would have happened if the Phils had played much, much better over those 58 games than they actually did.  For openers, would they still have coveted Roy Oswalt with such a great record?  Would they have needed him?

The list above is interesting when you consider how we saw this club coming out of Spring Training.  We all thought this team, with Halladay, was even better than last year's team, and had the word "powerhouse dynasty" written all over it.  Did we think 100 wins were possible?  No, I don't think so ... I saw very few article or blog postings talking about 100 wins (Comments to posts?  Yes, but few bloggers themselves were predicting a cool century).  But if you look at what the Phils were capable of, even playing those 58 games at a 90-win pace (100-54 with eight games to play), you get the sense that the injuries and long hitting slump may have robbed us of a place in the pantheon of great single-season teams.

As it is, the current September is the stuff of legend.  As much as September of 2007 was epic, this has been a September that could rank as one of the greatest closing kicks ever by a pennant contender.  It's almost New York Giant-like in magnitude.

The Giants were 20-5 in September of 1951 to make up seven games after a 20-9 August ... the Phils are presently 19-3 making up three games after an 18-10 August.  That's a 40-14 finish for the Giants versus a current skein of 37-13.  Bet you haven't seen anyone compare the 2010 Phils to the 1951 Giants, have you?

So, let's enjoy this ride while it lasts, and keep reminding ourselves that we're watching something absolutely historical as the Phils continue to ride roughshod on the NL.  Like you, I hope the bottom doesn't fall out ... but somehow, I think the way this club responded to all the injuries (remember what happened to the Mets when they lost Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, and Putz last year) has them believing that they are the best team on the planet.

And I agree ... the Phils are the best team in all of baseball right now.  And just like I won't argue the merits of some Whiz wit on my steak ... I won't argue my previous point.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Oh my! Oh-swalt!

September 22:  PHILLIES 1, Atlanta 0 (Magic Number: 4)
Record Since "Houston Massacre":  22-4
Record in September:  18-3

What a game!  And in the pressure of a pennant race!  Shades of Addie Joss in 1908!  Okay, maybe the Addie Joss comparison is stretching things a lot, but any pitcher or team tossing a one-hitter, against their rival and chaser, in a pennant race, is cause for lots of hyperbole!!

And what about Rauuuul "Werewolves of London" Ibanez???  Another two-out double to plate the eventual winning run!!  While I don't believe in the concept of a "clutch" hitter, we can say that Raul was clutch the past two nights.

I really have nothing more to say about tonight's game.  Oswalt has been absolutely fantastic, and I think the National League (and them thar fellers over in the Amercun League) have seen the playoff future ... and they have got to be intimidated.

When was the last time you could honestly say that the Phillies, before they ever play a playoff game, have played in a way that is scaring the living crap out of the teams waiting to face them?

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

On Pitcher Wins

For those who don't know, I am an avid tabletop baseball gamer.  I've played them all:  APBA, Strat-O-Matic, SherCo, Diamond Mind, Extra Innings, Time Travel, Replay.  Even designed a baseball game of my own.  I'm also a stats junkie ... I keep the most complete stats, even for the tabletop, that anyone could ask for.

So, whenever I start thinking about new ways to do things, I can use my tabletop leagues to try it out to see how it would work in reality.  For example, my research showed that 96% of all extra-inning games end before the game goes into the 13th inning.  So, in my leagues, teams play up to three extra innings.  If no one wins after 12, the game goes into the books as a tie game (not replayed).

As Roy Halladay approached his 20th win, which he got tonight, I started thinking about what really constitutes a "win".  And who deserves a win.  Does a reliever, entering a tie game, deserve a win for something he really had nothing to do with?

So, here's what I plan on trying out for my next tabletop league project:

A starter can only be credited with a win in any game.  And a starter may only be credited with a win if:

a) He pitches five innings or more
b) He allows four runs or fewer (earned or unearned)

Relievers cannot earn wins under this rule.  Instead, any games won by the team, but not credited to a starting pitcher, are credited as "team wins".

Losses are another story.

All losses should be charged to an individual pitcher.  The losing pitcher will be the one who gave up the eventual game-winning run.  However, if the actions of a fielder cause the eventual winning run to score, the the loss is charged as a "team loss". 

There's an important distinction, here, in the phrase "gave up the eventual game-winning run".  Let me illustrate:

Ryan Madson comes on in the bottom of 9th and gives up a leadoff walk in a tie ballgame.  Brad Lidge then walks two guys and gives up a sac fly for the win.

Under current rules, Madson is charged with the loss because his walk scored the winning run.  But whose fault was it that the guy scored?  Lidge's!!  In this case, Lidge gets the loss as his wildness put the runner on third where the sac fly now is in play for bringing him home.

So, in my system, if the official scorer can point to the actions of a subsequent pitcher as being the cause for an inherited runner to score, then that pitcher gets tagged with the loss.  Think if Madson walked the bases loaded, then Lidge served up a grannie.  Yes, Madson put Lidge in a tough (and I mean tough) spot ... but Lidge didn't have to serve up a homer.

I admit that I haven't tried this, but it seems to make sense, probably in the same way that getting married made sense to me 24 years ago (thankfully, the missus doesn't read baseball blogs).  But the test kitchen will be the tabletop.

Halladay Two-O

September 21:  PHILLIES 5, Atlanta 3 (Magic Number is 6)
September 20:  PHILLIES 3, Atlanta 1 (Magic Number is 8)

He wasn't particularly sharp, especially after the first inning, but Roy Halladay had just enough guile, arm, and guts to win his 20th game of the season tonight.  In so doing, he becomes the first Phillies pitcher since Steve Carlton in 1982 to win 20 games.  That 28-year wait was the third-longest active streak in the majors.

The Phils did just enough again tonight to win, but facing a quality team like the Braves, it doesn't have to be the 21st Century edition of The Bash Brothers.  It just has to be a win.

Now, we all know how fragile leads can be (ask the 1964 Phils and 2007 Mets about that).  But with a 5-game lead and just 10 to play, six against woeful opponents, it's getting clearer every day that the Phils should soon be posting one of those little "x-" in front of "Philadelphia" in the standings.  I won't go so far as to call it over ... I have steadfastly refused to celebrate anything until that little "x" appears in the standings.  But this is just about over, folks.

Ninety-one wins.  A season-high nine-game win streak.  Thirty games above .500.  A 17-3 record in September.  A 21-4 record since the long-forgotten "Houston Massacre".  Another sell-out at The Bank.  Rally Towels everywhere you look. 

It looks and feels like October baseball ... because it's almost certain that, for the fourth consecutive year, there will be October baseball in the City of Philadelphia ... a new record for consecutive post-season appearances by the Phils.

We can all revel in the wonderful run in the second half that's had us come from seven down to five up, an amazing twelve-game swing in the course of the last 60 days.  That's right, two months ago, this very evening, the Phils were seven games behind the Braves in National League East. 

I'm going to go out on a huge limb and say that this past month has been the greatest month of baseball ever played by the Phillies.  Yeah, it's easy to get caught up in the hype, but when you live as far away as I do (Chicagoland) and you're not right there, in the middle of the frenzy, it's easier for me not to get caught up in the hype, because I'm not surrounded by peers, co-workers, family, friends, and neighbors, all high-fiving each other over the streak the Phils are in.

I'm quite serious.  Yes, the Phils had a magical, 12-3 October in 2008.  But we expected it (well, I suppose many of us suspected the bottom would eventually fall out as it usually does for Philadelphia teams) and went along for the ride.  But no one saw this coming, especially after losing that four-game set to the Astros.  No one could have foreseen this.  Even I kept saying that at least we could grab the Wild Card if all else failed.

And because no one saw this coming, it's not only all the more sweeter, it's also impacting my judgement on whether or not this stretch of baseball is the greatest ever played by a Phillies team.  And I'm going to say that it is.  You may disagree with my opinion, but that opinion, and $4, gets you a something-or-other coffee-type drink at one of those coffee-like places where everyone drinking a cup thinks they're very special and discerning people for drinking what is, essentially, whipped cream, air-injected milk, with caramel syrup and about as much real coffee in it as tiramisu.  In other words, Starbucks is to coffee what Jamba Juice is to coffee.  (Okay, that's my "you cannot be serious" rant about Starbucks and all Starbucks wanna-be shops.)

Enjoy the ride, Phillies fans ...

Sunday, September 19, 2010

The Gutless, Heartless Team That Call Themselves "The Mets"

Message to the Mets (and their fans):

Since you failed to show up at Citi Field for your weekend series against the Braves, I expect you to refuse to show up for your weekend series at Citizens Bank Park this weekend.  After all, if you didn't have the guts to play spoiler in the NL East race this past weekend, you forfeit the right to exhibit any guts against the Phils this coming weekend.  So, keep playing the way you did against the Braves, mailing it in and reserving your tee times.

It's quite obvious that you have no heart.  The Collapse of 2007 was supposed to be an anomaly, a fluke, not really representative of the great Met "tradition" (of some of the luckiest plays ever in World Series history).  But what about 2008, when you saw the Phightins in the rear view and folded like a tent?  Or 2009, when a few key injuries sank your season before it every started?  Or the team that mailed in 2010 from Spring Training?

So, please, don't start caring about the season now.  Don't bother worrying about "playing for pride" ... you had that chance this past weekend and passed on it like I pass on rice cakes or whole wheat bread.  Don't suddenly realize that you can play spoiler now.  Just keep on playing your Wiis or X-Box 360s in the clubhouse to take your mind off how absolutely horrible your club is, and what a bunch of gutless, heartless players you all are.

And if you should get the idea that you should get up off your knees and start playing baseball, don't.  Your heads are no place for ideas.  Just keep on collecting your paychecks and mailing in your results.

Changing, ever so slightly, what Marcellus Wallace said to Butch in "Pulp Fiction", I say to the Mets:

"You leave town.  Tonight, right now.  And when you're gone, you stay gone, or you be gone.  You lost all your Philly privileges."

Swee-eee-eee, Sweep City Woman

September 19:  PHILLIES 7, Washington 6
September 18:  PHILLIES 5, Washington 2
September 17:  PHILLIES 9, Washington 1

JAYSON WERTH ... YOU ARE THE MAN!

WOW!!!  What a comeback!  Unbelievable!  Scintillating!  There are no words!  I can't believe what I just saw!  The Phillies win ... theeeeeeeeeeeeee Phillies win!  And that's a Phils winner!  You can put it on the boarrrrrrrd ... YES!  Long drive to deep.  Left.  Center field.  And that ball is ... OUTTA HEEEERRRRRREEEEE ... Jay-son Werth, with a two-run, home-run, and the Phils win it, 7-6!!  Hard to believe, Harry!

You name the game-ending hyperbole, and it applied to today's game.  As I watched football this afternoon, I kept my eye on the score updates that FOX kept cycling along with the football scores.  And as a Phillies 3-1 lead turned into a 6-3 deficit in the upper-right corner of my TV screen, my anger boiled like a hotdog in those old steamer trays that Charlie Frank used to tote around the Vet in the old days.

As an aside, I miss Charlie.  When he'd be out of dogs and someone would flag him down, he'd holler back, "Gotta take my doggy for a walk ... be right back".  And that man knew how to slather the Gulden's onto every Phillie Frank :)

Anyway, imagine my surprise when, between football games, I copped my wife's Blackberry to check on the score of the Phils' game.  7-6!  What happened?!?!?  How?  Who?  A quick flip over to MLB Network to catch Quick Pitch ... and my questions were answered.

Joe Blanton continues, unfortunately, to refuse to last into and beyond the 6th inning so that the bullpen can get some needed rest down the stretch.  I am amazed at Blanton:  with the work that Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels have been doing, he simply doesn't get it.  Cruising along with eight Ks through five innings, he doesn't take a page from their book and stay focused ... he gets lazy and then gets in trouble ... then gets his pitch count up above 90, which is where the real fun starts.

Of course, the big series starts on Monday, with Jair Jurrjens opposing Cole Hamels.  The Braves series will be a playoff preview in the sense that we'll get a chance to see what Games 1-3 of the NLDS will look like on the mound.  The rest of the National League will most definitely be watching, since either the Reds, Rockies, Giants, or Padres will be facing those three guys come October 6.

With the three-game lead, the Phils can take two and almost wrap up the division.  Taking 2 of 3 would put the Phils at 91-62, the Braves at 87-66 ... leaving the Phils four up with nine to play.  Here's what would be needed, then, the final nine games:

  • If the Phils go 3-6, the Braves must go 7-2 to tie for the division, 8-1 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 4-5, the Braves must go 8-1 to tie for the division, 9-0 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 5-4, the Braves must go 9-0 to tie for the division, and cannot win outright
  • If the Phils go 6-3, the Braves can only hope for the wild card

Should the Phils lose 2 of 3, then they'd be 90-63, and the Braves would be 88-65, leaving us with:

  • If the Phils go 3-6, the Braves must go 5-4 to tie for the division, 6-3 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 4-5, the Braves must go 6-3 to tie for the division, 7-2 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 5-4, the Braves must go 7-2 to tie for the division, 8-1 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 6-3, the Braves must go 8-1 to tie for the division, 9-0 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 7-2, the Braves can only hope for the wild card (because one of those Phils wins would be against the Braves)
In other words, every Braves loss in the series makes it that much more of an improbability that the Braves can or will catch us.  That seems like a Captain Obvious moment, but lots of fans aren't as keen on the math of the playoff race as others, so let's spell it out for everyone!



Thursday, September 16, 2010

Miss A Little ... And You Miss A Lot

September 16:  off day
September 15:  PHILLIES 10, Florida 4
September 14:  PHILLIES 2, Florida 1
September 13:  PHILLIES 11, Florida 4
September 12:  PHILLIES 3, New York 0
September 11:  New York 4, PHILLIES 3
September 10:  PHILLIES 8, New York 4

Wow ... take a few days off from blogging, and the Phils go from a half-game lead to a three-game lead!  It's just what my professors used to say in college ... if you miss a little, you miss a lot!!

To my faithful readers, my apologies for the lack of posts the past few days.  Real life intervened and kept me from posting.  Maybe someday, I'll have some contributing writers like other blogs to keep fresh stuff flowing on a daily basis.  Until then, I'll catch as catch can.

The recent success of the Phightins has me returning to the topics of "Post Four-Game Losing Streaks" and "Septembers".  Since their four-game losing streak (the home sweep by the Astros) on August 23-26, the Phils have gone 16-4 (.800), keeping in tradition with their record after similar four-game streaks in the past four playoff runs.

As to September, the Phils have gone 12-3 (.800), which keeps them in line for another fantastic September run, something they've done every year since 2004.  You can find articles on both phenomenon in the Classic Steaks section:

"How Sweep It Is"
"Brad Lidge: The Pitching Walenda"

I'll have more to say in the coming days about the Phils' possible playoff rotation, the health of Jimmy Rollins, and the race for a fourth consecutive NL East flag.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Perfect Ten

September 9:  Off day
September 8:  PHILLIES 10, Florida 6

Well, the offense has started to come back to life, and not a moment too soon.  Especially since we have a score to settle with the Mets, who shut us out for an entire series way back in June that I believe started us on that crystal-blue funk that lasted until July.

I'm trying not to jinx Jimmy Rollins by talking too much about his hamstring.  Suffice it to say, it would be great to have everyone back for the stretch run, but let's be sure everyone is ready and healthy enough to play, especially in the post-season.  Here's hoping the tightness in Jimmy's hammy is just that and that a few days' rest will set him to right.

Of course, the Braves lost tonight, sending them a full game back of the Phils.  Nice to see the Cardinals start hitting at just the right time (how many times in the past has a rival played a team that was in a funk instead of being red-hot?).  Looks like the Bravos put Kawakami into the 'pen, given his 1-11 record as a starter.  It'll be interesting to see how that plays out when the Phils host Atlanta during the next homestand.

I followed a link at The Good Phight this morning over breakfast, and in the linked story, it seems that Kyle Kendrick is a bit miffed that he's not being considered as a reliable fifth starter by Charlie Manuel (and the fans) as Manuel has not named his fifth starter for Saturday's game at New York.  Seems Kendrick's main complaint is that the other guys on the staff are considered "perfect", and Kyle doesn't believe he's been appreciated enough.

Kyle, I doubt you read this blog.  And if you do, you're probably like every other major leaguer who thinks the ordinary fan can't possibly understand the intricasies of the game as well as you can.  But let me clue you in on something ....

Those other pitchers?  The ones you're complaining about being considered "perfect" instead of you?

Roy Oswalt?  5-1 with the Phils, 2.30 ERA and 11-13 overall, 3.09 ERA with a WHIP of 1.073.  For his career?  146-83, 3.22 ERA, WHIP of 1.190.

Cole Hamels?  Only the 2008 World Series MVP.  10-10, 3.06, WHIP of 1.165.  For his career, 58-44, 3.54, WHIP of 1.173.

Roy Halladay?  Cy Young Winner.  17-10, 2,33, WHIP of 1.050.  For his career, 165-86, 3.33 ERA, WHIP of 1.184.

And you?  9-8, 4.29 ERA, WHIP of 1.389.  For your career, 32-22, 4.74, WHIP of 1.433.

Do you see why, exactly, they're deemed "perfect" and you're not?  Come cry to the press when you can match their accomplishments and still don't get any credit.  Pitch like a pro, not like a minor leaguer, and the fans will cut you some slack.  If you take the hill and the Braves have lost or are losing, pitch like you want to personally put the fork in them.

Until then, remember ... you play in Philadelphia, the toughest town to please in all of sports.  We don't want to hear how hard you're trying to be a better pitcher, we want you to become a better pitcher.  As Master Yoda once said:  "There is no try.  Only do."

You would be wise, young Padwan, to listen and understand that concept.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Back Where You Belong

September 7:  PHILLIES 8, Florida 7
September 6:  PHILLIES 7, Florida 6 (2nd game)
September 6:  Florida 7, PHILLIES 1 (1st game)

It took 99 days for the Phillies to reclaim what was rightfully theirs, first place in National League East.  Finally, the Braves lost on a day the Phillies won (that's a gross exaggeration), and that propelled the Quakers back to their customary place atop the standings.

And it's been a long, strange trip back from the depths of the NL East ladder.  Even last night's game had a tinge of "uh-oh" painted all over it when the Phightins blew another late-game lead and then had to fight back to win.

Not much to say about the events of the past 48 hours, other than to say, "Phew!", and hope that this latest stand atop the table will be permanent.

Later tonight, a look at the roads the Phils and Braves will be travelling as we approach the finish line of the 2010 campaign.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Let's Show Some Respect ...

... when Atlanta's Bobby Cox comes to The Bank for the final time in the regular season later this month.

The Florida Marlins didn't give Bobby Cox so much as a PA announcement this weekend, becoming the only team thus far this season not to recognize Cox's impending retirement after all those years at the helm of the Braves and Blue Jays.  To me, that seems petty.  Yes, it's a divisional rival, but we're talking about one of the greatest managers in MLB history.

Surely, the Marlins recognize that.  And, yes, Cox did talk some smack back when the Fish canned their manager, but that's understandable for two reasons: a) Cox was a mentor of the Marlins' skipper, b) the way the Marlins did it, as they do everything else, was particularly classless.  But regardless, ignoring Cox's accomplishments and his career is childish, petulant, and unprofessional.

So, even though we're embroiled in a heated pennant race with the Braves, and we'd never, ever cheer for them, I hope that both the fans, as well as the Phillies' organization, are classy and respectful towards Bobby in his final series in Philadelphia.  I know we take the rap for being "bad" fans, but too many people mistake passion for ignorance.  But no amount of explaining Philadelphians' behavior will suffice if neither the team, nor its fans, are as classless as the Marlins were this weekend.

We hate the Braves.  Finished behind them a lot during their 14-year run.  But as baseball fans, let's make sure we do what we have always done ... recognize greatness in all its forms, no matter the opponent.

Let's give Bobby Cox a rousing ovation, and acknowledge that while we don't like his team, we understand that we have been witness to one of the greatest managers to ever grace the game.

Order up!