The First Cliff Lee Deal: How It Made The Phils Better

When the Phillies traded Cliff Lee this past off-season for the chance to get Roy Halladay, Phillies fans were left scratching their heads.  Sure, Halladay was a great addition, they said.  But why not have Halladay *and* Lee?  The thought here being that Cole Hamels may not return to 2008 form, but would fall somewhere between 2008 and 2009.  So, we needed a #2 starter.

But here's why what actually happened turned out brilliantly, even if it all was simply a happy accident.

Let's go back to July 2009.  J.P. Ricciardi, then the GM of the Blue Jays, saw the young, less-experienced Ruben Amaro coming to ask for Roy Halladay.  Ricciardi, eager to prove to Jays fans that he was a shrewd wheeler-dealer who would get max value for a guy the Jays weren't going to be able to keep, stuck a gun in Ruben's ribs and demanded J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and others, in return for Doc.

Ruben laughed, claiming that the gun was tickling his ribs.  Looking back at Ricciardi, Amaro's response was akin to: "Seriously, J.P., who do you really want?"  Informed that he wasn't kidding, Amaro pinned a $20 bill to Ricciardi's shirt and wished him the best of luck.

Amaro then turned his sights on Lee, who cost the Phils some of their Top Ten prospects, but not Drabek, Brown, or Taylor.  "Genius!", we said.  "Brilliant!", said the two Guinness guys.  "Outstanding, Private Pyle!", said Gunnery Sergeant Hartman.

The commotion of Lee's subsequent trade centered, from the fans' standpoint, on "Why can't we have them both?"  From the club's standpoint, they saw Lee as a rent-a-pitcher who wanted a longer contract and bigger payday than the Phils' management were philosophically prepared to give.  From Lee's standpoint (if his agent is to be believed), he wanted to stay in Philadelphia.

Here's the connundrum, if you're Ruben Amaro:  Your big acquisition wants a bigger deal than you're willing to give.  Your big acquisition's agent, hoping to forment anger in the fan base, tells the media that no such demands were made and that his client loves the city and its fans.  You can hold the line, and then watch the Yankees swoop in and get your big acqusition, leaving you with nothing to show for your bold move. 

If I was Ruben, I would have done exactly what he did when faced with the same situation:  maximize the moves I can make, and pray that what was essentially Lee-for-Halladay doesn't blow up in my face.

But here's why I think the first Lee deal ended up making the Phils even better than they would have been if Ruben had been afraid of the gun J.P. Ricciardi held to his ribs in July 2009 ...

It would be foolish to believe that anyone would have planned for J.P. Riccardi to be fired back in July of 2009, so I'm not giving Ruben any credit for being clairvoyant.  But, anyone who's been around baseball as long as Ruben has knew that the Jays were in trouble last year.  Riccardi, despite his bravado, was desperate to get something for Halladay, but couldn't sit back and take peanuts.  That he over-played his hand probably doomed him more in Toronto than the play of the Jays on the field.  But in over-playing his hand, Amaro did discover something ... the Phils may have been the only team with a legitimate chance of being able to trade for Halladay, anyway.

So, when Riccardi got the axe, his replacement, Alex Anthopoulos, knew that he had to get a Halladay deal done.  He also knew he had a suitor in Amaro, and he also knew how badly his predecessor had over-played his hand.  What better way to get started than by finishing what others had begun, especially when Jays fans all knew that Doc was going and never coming back, anyway?

Now, here's where the original Lee deal makes the Phils better today than they would have otherwise been.  And it's a "Jack Sprat"-type of logic and thinking that gets us there.

By not trading Drabek and Happ, Ruben still had pieces to trade.  However, because Anthopoulos already knew that he would never get both Drabek and Happ, he could lower his price and take one, but not both.  That allowed Ruben to have two bullets in his gun (three, if you recall that Lee was still on the Phils when the Halladay deal was being negotiated) for deals, rather than just one.

Trading Lee, despite the bad press, negative repercussions, and the like, brought back prospects to the club that may help them in the future (or may help them land established players in a trade).  That allowed Drabek to be dealt for Halladay.

The Halladay trade made the Phils better instantly, because Cliff Lee, for all his innings-eating, is no Roy Halladay.  But the original deal for Lee made the Phils better because having J.A. Happ still around allowed Ruben to go out and get Roy Oswalt, arguably one of the best second-half pitchers in the game.

Yes, the Oswalt trade was probably a concession/admission that Ruben probably shouldn't have dealt Cliff Lee.  Or, perhaps, the Oswalt trade was Ruben, doing the Walt Jocketty thing and starting a trend of big-time, trade-deadline deals that keep the Phils contending, even in years where they might seem to be out of it.  It wouldn't surprise me if that's not part of the equation here.

So, had Ruben not run from the gun that Ricciardi was holding, we would have had Halladay as the ace, Hamels at #2, Blanton #3, Moyer #4, and Kendrick #5.  That would mean a playoff rotation of Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton.  With a potential 2011 rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, and Kendrick.

But today, we have Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, and Kendrick, with a playoff rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels.  With a 2011 rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, and Kendrick.

It could just be me, but I like the 2010 versions with Halladay and Oswalt, and the 2011 rotation with those guys, much, much better than I like what we could have had.

Just another example of the best deals sometimes being the deals you don't make.