Sunday, September 19, 2010

Swee-eee-eee, Sweep City Woman

September 19:  PHILLIES 7, Washington 6
September 18:  PHILLIES 5, Washington 2
September 17:  PHILLIES 9, Washington 1

JAYSON WERTH ... YOU ARE THE MAN!

WOW!!!  What a comeback!  Unbelievable!  Scintillating!  There are no words!  I can't believe what I just saw!  The Phillies win ... theeeeeeeeeeeeee Phillies win!  And that's a Phils winner!  You can put it on the boarrrrrrrd ... YES!  Long drive to deep.  Left.  Center field.  And that ball is ... OUTTA HEEEERRRRRREEEEE ... Jay-son Werth, with a two-run, home-run, and the Phils win it, 7-6!!  Hard to believe, Harry!

You name the game-ending hyperbole, and it applied to today's game.  As I watched football this afternoon, I kept my eye on the score updates that FOX kept cycling along with the football scores.  And as a Phillies 3-1 lead turned into a 6-3 deficit in the upper-right corner of my TV screen, my anger boiled like a hotdog in those old steamer trays that Charlie Frank used to tote around the Vet in the old days.

As an aside, I miss Charlie.  When he'd be out of dogs and someone would flag him down, he'd holler back, "Gotta take my doggy for a walk ... be right back".  And that man knew how to slather the Gulden's onto every Phillie Frank :)

Anyway, imagine my surprise when, between football games, I copped my wife's Blackberry to check on the score of the Phils' game.  7-6!  What happened?!?!?  How?  Who?  A quick flip over to MLB Network to catch Quick Pitch ... and my questions were answered.

Joe Blanton continues, unfortunately, to refuse to last into and beyond the 6th inning so that the bullpen can get some needed rest down the stretch.  I am amazed at Blanton:  with the work that Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels have been doing, he simply doesn't get it.  Cruising along with eight Ks through five innings, he doesn't take a page from their book and stay focused ... he gets lazy and then gets in trouble ... then gets his pitch count up above 90, which is where the real fun starts.

Of course, the big series starts on Monday, with Jair Jurrjens opposing Cole Hamels.  The Braves series will be a playoff preview in the sense that we'll get a chance to see what Games 1-3 of the NLDS will look like on the mound.  The rest of the National League will most definitely be watching, since either the Reds, Rockies, Giants, or Padres will be facing those three guys come October 6.

With the three-game lead, the Phils can take two and almost wrap up the division.  Taking 2 of 3 would put the Phils at 91-62, the Braves at 87-66 ... leaving the Phils four up with nine to play.  Here's what would be needed, then, the final nine games:

  • If the Phils go 3-6, the Braves must go 7-2 to tie for the division, 8-1 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 4-5, the Braves must go 8-1 to tie for the division, 9-0 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 5-4, the Braves must go 9-0 to tie for the division, and cannot win outright
  • If the Phils go 6-3, the Braves can only hope for the wild card

Should the Phils lose 2 of 3, then they'd be 90-63, and the Braves would be 88-65, leaving us with:

  • If the Phils go 3-6, the Braves must go 5-4 to tie for the division, 6-3 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 4-5, the Braves must go 6-3 to tie for the division, 7-2 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 5-4, the Braves must go 7-2 to tie for the division, 8-1 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 6-3, the Braves must go 8-1 to tie for the division, 9-0 to win outright
  • If the Phils go 7-2, the Braves can only hope for the wild card (because one of those Phils wins would be against the Braves)
In other words, every Braves loss in the series makes it that much more of an improbability that the Braves can or will catch us.  That seems like a Captain Obvious moment, but lots of fans aren't as keen on the math of the playoff race as others, so let's spell it out for everyone!



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